Using Non-Cancer Hospice Death Rates to Predict Hospice Penetration

Is there opportunity for hospice market expansion in the area your agency serves? Knowing the percentage of local non-cancer hospice death rates can help you predict the answer to that question.

The non-cancer death rate is a metric that can be used to determine the maturity of a hospice market. Hospice was a Medicare benefit that was conceived primarily for cancer patients. In 2000, approximately 70% of all hospice patients had a cancer diagnosis. Today the percentage of hospice patients with cancer is around 40%. The reason for this shift? Finding more non-cancer patients has been one of the major ways hospice usage and individual agencies have grown.
 

HealthMR, leaders in hospice market data, share a graph on non-cancer hospice death rates

A High Non-Cancer Rate Correlates with High Hospice Penetration

By looking at Healthcare Market Resource data on the percentage of non-cancer hospice deaths by state in 2006, we can conclude the following:

  • There is an approximate 10% difference in non-cancer hospice deaths between the quartiles of states with the highest and lowest rates.
  • However, the variation in non-cancer rates between individual states is much greater. Utah is the state with the highest number of non-cancer deaths on hospice, for example with 53% more compared to the lowest non-cancer hospice death rate in Washington, D.C.
  • If we compare this data with the Hospice Penetration Metric in the Healthcare Market Resource March/April Newsletter, a strong correlation of 82% can be observed between states with high hospice penetration and high non-cancer hospice death rates.

A Low Non-Cancer Rate Indicates Opportunity for Growth
What are the implications of this correlation for agencies looking to expand their market? If there is a lower than average percentage of non-cancer deaths in your service area, the opportunity for growth is promising. Specifically, the opportunity exists for marketing to physicians and specialists who have not traditionally referred patients to hospice, such as nephrologists and neurologists. However, a higher than average percentage of non-cancer hospice deaths indicates a mature hospice market where physicians are already referring patients to hospice who are dying from conditions other than cancer.

Because each service area is unique, it is important to look at your local data to determine the best opportunities and strategies for expanding your market. Click here or call us today at 215-657-7373 to learn more about how our Hospice Market Profiles can evaluate the hospice usage and growth opportunities in your market.